Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Fraser & Neave Ltd - F&B resilient in recessionary environment

F&N's 2Q09 core net profit of S$99m was in line with expectations, forming 29% of consensus and our expectations. Positives were: 1) resilient F&B sales and margins; 2) improvements in property sales volume in China and Australia; and 3) positive rental reversions from a low base. This was offset by lower property presales in Singapore and disappointing P&P print volume. After Coke's withdrawal, management wants to launch new F&B products under the F&N brand name. Over 70% of the group's S$1.5bn maturing debt in FY09 has been refinanced and a rights issue is not on the agenda, says management. We roll over our RNAV estimate to end-CY10 to capture CY10 rental assumptions. We raise our FY09-11 core EPS estimates by 2-8% on higher rents and property development sales. Our target price, still pegged at a 20% discount to RNAV, rises from S$2.57 to S$2.98. With little upside potential, maintain Neutral.

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