CPO has traded at an average of Rm. 1,940 per tonne year-to-date, and is ahead of our FY09 assumption of Rm 1,800. On this basis, we had factored in a 35% decline in cooking oil average selling prices. If CPO prices remain firm, this assumption will prove too conservative. IFAR has this year reduced its cooking oil prices by just 10%, and has also absorbed half of a 10% re-instatement of value added tax.
IFAR had indicated in its last briefing that cost of production is likely to come down to around US$230 per tonne, versus US$250 per tonne in FY08, mainly from lower fertilizer and fuel prices. IFAR will be completing its tender for its 2Q fertiliser purchases in the next few weeks, and we expect fertiliser costs to remain low, in line with weak crude oil prices.
IFAR has also indicated that there is no material impact to sales from the Indonesian elections. Furthermore, the trend of migration towards branded cooking oils is still intact, due to the growth of supermarkets. It is also ramping up production on its recently expanded Medan refinery, while its new Jakarta refinery is on track to come on-stream in early 2010.
We are maintaining our FY09 forecast of Rp. 1,071.8b, or an EPS of 10.1cts per share, versus consensus of 8.2cts, with the potential for further upgrades. Our target price is raised to S$0.90, in line with the median of 9.2x for SGX-listed palm oil related companies. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
Sponsored Links
No comments:
Post a Comment