Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Venture Corporation: Navigating well; BUY Price Target : 12-month S$ 6.80

We expect Venture’s 1Q09 operating profit to fall 29% y-o-y to about S$39m on sales of S$633m when the company reports result on 30 April. In line with house view for a 2H recovery, we have re-rated valuation peg to normalized early cycle PER (NECP) of 11.5x, from 9x previously. Consequently, our new TP is S$6.80. Maintain Buy.

Widening 1Q09 revenue q-o-q decline to 30% from 20% previously. Our recent update indicated that Retail Store Solutions and TMI have contracted more than expected while other SBUs are easing within expectations. Venture’s printer business is pretty much intact; industry sources indicated that Foxconn’s projected run has hit some problems. Operating margins are also trending within expectations, thanks to continued cost control and operational efficiency.

Near term visibility is low but forward planning encouraging. In this season of low tides, Venture is careful not to build volume because visibility is only limited to May. However, there appears to be some demand traction in its future build plans although the phase-in is gradual and it is by no means a massive restoration for end demand.

Maintain Buy, revised TP to S$6.80. We have cut FY09 earnings by 11% to account for lower than expected Q1 earnings. Notwithstanding, TP is raised to S$6.80 as we lift valuation peg to 11.5x (NECP) from trough of 9x previously. Our FY09 forecast did not include provision for the remaining S$18.8m of CDO investment because we expect Venture to write back a significant amount when the instrument (host value: S$167.8m) matures in Dec 2009.

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