SMRT: As expected as train arrivals

4Q09 net profit $39m (+8% y-o-y). 4Q net profit of S$38.7m (+13% y-o-y, -6% q-o-q) was in line with expectations. Topline ended at $116.2m, up 4% y-o-y. For full year, revenue and net profit ended at $879m (+10%) and $163m (+9%), respectively. Its MRT, rental and advertising continued to be the main contributors to its operating profit. Bus division was affected by higher diesel costs and maintenance, while losses at Taxi division was due to lower hired out rate and losses on disposals.

Final dividend of 6.0 cents. A final dividend of 6.0 cents was proposed, bringing total dividends to 7.75 cents for the full year. This equates to a payout of 72% of PATMI. Book closure date is 30 Jul 09.

Outlook. Train ridership for FY09 was up 9% to 510.2m rides. We expect ridership to remain relatively firm, albeit growing at a slower pace. We are assuming a 3% and 1% growth for its train and bus ridership in FY10F respectively. Rental should continue to see growth, albeit slower, on higher lettable space. Advertising should be affected by the slower economy.

Maintain Hold, TP: S$1.65. We maintain our Hold recommendation, TP: S$1.65 still based on 14x FY10F PER (mid-trading range). Our forecasts are trimmed slightly by 3-4% largely on a lower ridership growth. We believe the stable operations, relatively resilient business model and a 5% yield should provide support to the share price.

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