Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Genting Singapore: Less muted 2Q09 results

Less muted 2Q09 results. Genting Singapore (Genting) posted a less muted set of 2Q09 results last Friday evening. While revenue fell 3.1% YoY to S$120.1m, it was up 14.0% QoQ, thanks to improved luck factor and increase in business volume at its UK casino operations. However, net loss widened from S$1.8m in 2Q08 to S$50.7m - it was also up 59.0% QoQ, mainly due to its share of associates loss of S$20.7m; this arising from a reduction in values of a property owned by a jointly controlled entity in London, as well as higher pre-operating expenses for RWS.

However if we strip out this item and also its fair value adjustments, its core loss would have widened 101.0% YoY but shrunk 13.5% QoQ to S$20.7m. For the first half, revenue fell 21.7% to S$225.5m, meeting about 38.4% of our FY09 estimate, while Genting swung from a net profit of S$4.2m in 1H08 to a net loss of S$82.5m; excluding fair value adjustments and associate loss, core loss came up to S$44.6m, meeting 44.8% of our FY09 forecast.

UK operations remain wild card. Although its UK operations have picked up somewhat QoQ, aided by improvement in business volume, as well as significant cost control on its end, management noted that the outlook for its UK operations remain uncertain. Besides the still uncertain economic environment, there are also several new measures by the UK government to raise gaming taxes; Genting expects the higher taxes to have an impact of less than £0.5m in 2009 but will continue to mitigate the impact of revenue reduction via vigilant cost reduction measures.

RWS on track for 1Q10 launch. As for Singapore, RWS is still targeting for a soft launch in 1Q10, but some talks have emerged that its casino may open before the end of 2009. RWS has increased its investment from S$6.0b to S$6.59b, but it expects the additional investment to be funded by operating cash flows once the IR opens. It has awarded over S$4.7b in project costs but it expects capex to remain under S$6.0b by the time of opening; we understand some attractions will only be opened by end 2011.

Maintain HOLD with improved S$0.85 fair value. In view of the improving economic outlook for Singapore and Asia, we have raised our FY10 revenue forecast by 10.1% and reduced our loss estimate by 48.9%; this will in turn improve our fair value from S$0.76 to S$0.85. Maintain HOLD.

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