While the weaker yoy comparison is as to be expected, the weaker qoq bottom-line performance in 2Q09 is in stark contrast to the general technology industry which has seen a sharp rebound after the very depressed 4Q08 and 1Q09 performance.
Looking ahead, while their customers are generally more optimistic about 2H09 prospects, they are not able to commit to the pace of recovery in orders, reflecting the uncertainty of the global economic environment.
Further, we understand that Venture’s non-ODM business with HP which had contributed about $600-700mln in sales or 18% of sales would be negatively impacted starting 2010 due to Hon Hai’s new entry into this business segment. Similar to Venture, other HP suppliers such as Jabil and Calcomp will similarly be negatively impacted. Mass production has started recently for Hon Hai and is expected to pick up in 2H2009 and even more strongly going into 2010 with their market share expected to rise from zero currently to a significant 50% by 2011.
As a result, Venture’s 2010 earnings would likely be negatively impacted notwithstanding the fact that they expect new contributions from new customers as well as new products.
While the stock has corrected from its $10.26 intra-day high hit at the end of July’09, it has climbed a robust 120% from its $3.90 low hit at end Nov’08 to $8.57 currently. With its PE of 13-14x already in line with the world’s largest contract manufacturer, coupled with uncertain prospects in 2010 due to the loss of HP’s non-ODM business, we are maintaining our SELL recommendation.
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