Thursday, August 20, 2009

Singapore Exchange - Securities momentum

SGX reported FY6/09 net profits of S$305.7m, 3% ahead of consensus and 6% ahead of our estimate. The key variance with our forecast lies in stronger securities clearing fees. Given the recent improvement in market volume, we have raised our target price by 17% to S$10.28. We maintain our Outperform rating.

Securities clearing revenue doubled in 4Q FY6/09, as a result of a doubling in trading value. However, securities revenues were 38% lower YoY, due to a 42% decrease in securities trading value. We note the recent surge in securities trading value, which reached an average of S$1.58bn in July but exceeded S$2bn a day in the first two days of August. We believe that there is momentum in securities trading volumes.

Derivatives revenue for 4Q FY6/09 rose 15% QoQ, as the number of contracts rose 19%. Total derivatives contracts traded rose 8.3% YoY for FY6/09, although clearing revenue remained flat. We estimate that derivatives volume will rise by 7% YoY in FY6/10.

Stable revenue fell by 14% YoY but increased its contribution to total revenue to 24% from 21%. Stable revenues were 62% of operating expenses in FY6/09, compared with 68% a year ago. We remain comfortable with the sustainability of this revenue.

Post-results, we have raised our net profit estimate for FY6/10 by 17% on higher securities turnover assumptions. We raised our target price to S$10.28.

12-month price target: S$10.28 based on a DDM methodology. SGX’s FY6/10E PER remains below its historical mean of 25.4x. A comparison with regional exchanges indicates that Singapore Exchange remains at a discount to both Hong Kong Exchange and Bursa Malaysia. SGX is trading at a 17% discount to HKEx and at a larger 23% discount to Bursa Malaysia. We are maintaining our Outperform rating.

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