Wednesday, August 26, 2009

NOL - Jun/Jul Container Monitor: Volume decline shrinks markedly but rates still dismal

Volumes recover markedly in period 7 (Jun 27 – Jul 24): Container shipping volumes fell 11% y/y to 187,400 FEUs in period 7 (July), a marked improvement from period 6 (June) and period 5 (May), where volumes fell 14% and 21% y/y respectively. The average volumes shipped per day in period 7 increased by 9% m/m and 18% over May. In the past 3 months, we saw the y/y decline in container volumes shrink by 5ppts per month on average which is positive for the sector.

However, rates are still down substantially and below breakeven: Average revenue per FEU (in US$) fell 28% y/y to $2,219 in period 7, slightly better (+1ppt) than period 6 but still dismal. Freight rates are still at a low compared to the previous year’s levels, despite a concerted industry effort to raise rates. Although the market tends to react positively to every rate hike announcement and we believe the operating outlook is getting better, it is uncertain how much can be effectively passed through and when the liners can return to profitability as exporters and freight forwarders remain resistant. Moreover, once freight rates move up to more sustainable levels, the ships laying idle (which constitute c.10% of global container capacity) will be back online plus newbuild deliveries will also exacerbate the oversupply.

Top line recovering slowly: We estimate container revenues fell 36% y/y in period 7, a 3ppts improvement from the previous 3 months, where revenues fell 39% y/y. Year to date, container revenues fell 38% y/y.

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